For Middlesex County, in February 2009, the Active Inventory as we follow it (homes for sales not including "under attorney reviews") has slightly increased about 3% compare to January but has been following a multi month’s modest downtrend. However the last three months have consistently slightly increased which could bring us back this Spring or Summer to an all time high in Active Inventory.The number of new homes listed in February has decreased almost 7% compare to new homes listed in January. Days of inventory (DOI) remains at over a year but decreased from last month (almost 5%).
Last December saw an increase in sold homes due mostly to Nov/Dec price correction. Sold Homes decreased in January (-31.2%) and is slightly decreasing also in February. In Middlesex county and most of the North East states there is a seasonal effect in the real estate industry. Typically there is a slowdown from September to March/April.
Last month we mentioned that both the median sold price and average sold price went up (+4.7% @ $320,000 and +6.7% @ $358,252 respectively) in January compare to December.
For February, the median sold price stays at $320,000. The average sold price decreased less than 3% ($348,449).
Both, the median sold price and average sold price for both months January and February are higher than December and >= to November (by $500). Are we seeing a bottom or a bottom formation? Next few months will tell….I will graph those in my blog in the next few days as to provide a better visual.
Sold price/asking price ratio decreased back to 93 % (last year support). Basically it means that in average sellers have closed deals 7% below their last asking price.
Days on market or DOM increased 6.25% to 85 days. We saw last year some months with 87/88 DOMs
It takes less than 3 months in average to go under contract. A word of caution with this indicator as it is not a cumulative DOM. This is a good example of the better value of looking at those statistics, which is more in the trend analysis than in a specific number at a specific given time.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still at historical lows. There is still enough supply for buyers to choose from and be able to find their dream homes.
We have switched our Middlesex County Real Estate barometer from "Buyer's Market" to "Strong Buyer's Market" last November. Variables for that decision were the decrease to historical lows of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the November sold price correction. Also the winter months can be the best time to buy a home as home prices tend to decrease/correct more in winter and there are usually less buyers out there, giving the motivated buyers more opportunities with less competition. The Stimulus incentive for first time home buyers ($8,000 tax credit) and various programs in effect can only add to our decision. As mentioned previously, if what we are seeing is a bottom formation for sold prices, we will consequently switch our barometer. The next few months will confirm the trend.
See the Local markets statistic section for detailed statistics for Metuchen, Edison, Piscataway, Woodbridge, Iselin, South Plainfield, New Brunswick and East Brunswick.
30 years fixed mortgage rate is historically at its lowest (see the Mortgage Rates section). This variable alone is great news for buyers, including first time home buyers as it makes home ownership more affordable.
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Cathy Chaudemanche
Realtor Associate/Keller Williams Realty Metuchen, NJ
Servicing Home Buyers and Sellers in Middlesex County, New Jersey
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